The biggest winner in South Africa's election this week may be former President Jacob Zuma, whose newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party has exceeded expectations and emerged as a major factor in the African National Congress' sharp drop in support.
MK is not going to win the election and is unlikely to be a coalition partner, analysts say, while Zuma is barred from standing for parliament because of a conviction for contempt of court.
But the party, which advocates nationalising land and banks and scrapping the constitution, is on course to unseat the ANC by a landslide in the populous province of KwaZulu-Natal, Zuma's home region.
With results from about 64% of polling stations in, MK was in third place on Friday with 11.8% of votes. The ANC had 41.9%, down from 57.5% in the last 2019 election, looking set to lose its majority for the first time in 30 years.
In KwaZulu-Natal - strategically significant due to the main ports of Durban and Richard's Bay - MK was leading with about 44% to the ANC's just under 19%.
Durban handles around 60% of trade to and from South Africa while Richard's Bay is the largest coal export facility in Africa.
Political analysts attributed MK's success largely to Zuma's popularity, which is rooted in his humble roots and anti-establishment stance.
An anti-apartheid veteran and Zulu traditionalist who sometimes dons leopard skins at public events, Zuma was forced by the ANC to quit the presidency in 2018 following a string of corruption scandals.
His presidency was defined by what South Africans call "state capture" after an inquiry pointed to systemic corruption enabling business people to plunder state resources.
Zuma denies this.
His successor Cyril Ramaphosa vowed to clean up the ANC, but critics say many have found his leadership too timid and constrained by consensus-building.
Ramaphosa's government has also struggled with chronic power shortages and dysfunctional ports, that are partly due to a legacy of corruption under Zuma.
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