The Republican party faces intense pressure to rally behind one mainstream candidate over the next month after a fractured establishment field helped Donald Trump, the populist property mogul, score a decisive victory in New Hampshire.
The Republican establishment had hoped that Mr Trump’s second-place finish in last week’s Iowa caucuses had punctured his air of invincibility. But his emphatic victory in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, coupled with the fact that no mainstream candidate emerged as the party’s clear standard bearer, has greatly complicated matters for the GOP as the race heads to South Carolina and other southern Bible Belt states.
Charlie Black, a veteran Republican operative, said New Hampshire would “extend the competition in the mainstream lane” to Super Tuesday on March 1 when more than a dozen states hold primaries. “But the critical deadline by which to rally around one mainstream candidate is March 15,” he said, with votes in states such as Ohio and Florida with large numbers of delegates and a winner-takes-all format.
Mr Trump secured 35 per cent in New Hampshire, which was better than polls had forecast. John Kasich, the moderate Ohio governor who received less than 2 per cent of Iowa’s votes, emerged with 16 per cent in New Hampshire after 106 town hall events.
Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, avoided making the Granite State his political graveyard after placing fourth with 11 per cent, just behind Ted Cruz, the ultra-conservative Texas senator who won Iowa. Crucially for Mr Bush, he narrowly beat Marco Rubio, the Cuban-American senator who appeared to be emerging as the establishment favourite until an awful debate performance on Saturday.
Chris Christie, the New Jersey governor, quit the race on Wednesday after getting 7 per cent in New Hampshire. His departure leaves Mr Kasich, Mr Bush and Mr Rubio fighting for the establishment mantle. Carly Fiorina, the former Hewlett-Packard boss who got 4 per cent in New Hampshire, also withdrew from the race on Wednesday.
Iowa and New Hampshire garner disproportionate attention because they hold the first votes of the presidential race. But in almost every election for 36 years, the eventual Republican and Democratic nominees have won either Iowa or New Hampshire. Iowa helped Jimmy Carter, a relatively unknown Georgia governor, catapult to the Democratic nomination, while New Hampshire was key to John McCain’s GOP success in 2008.
The New Hampshire results may also increase the chances of Michael Bloomberg, the former New York mayor, entering the race as an independent. The billionaire founder of the financial information group told the Financial Times this week he was considering a bid for the White House.
Mr Bloomberg is reportedly not impressed with Mrs Clinton, the former secretary of state who was roundly defeated in New Hampshire by Bernie Sanders, the populist Vermont senator. But most analysts believe that he would only run if Mr Trump and Mr Sanders appeared headed for their respective party nominations.
“Bloomberg still has to grapple with an immense partisan divide in American life — even with Sanders and/or Trump as the nominees, it seems doubtful that Bloomberg would win a single state, let alone the election,” said Kyle Kondik, a University of Virginia politics expert. “Clinton continuing to struggle might persuade Bloomberg that there is an opening . . . even if in reality he would probably just be a spoiler.
When the results of the Iowa caucuses revealed that Mr Trump had lost to Mr Cruz and only barely beaten Marco Rubio, the telegenic Florida senator, the GOP started to coalesce around the idea that the Cuban-American was the only mainstream politician who — unlike Mr Bush — could beat the insurgent frontrunners.
But the New Hampshire results have severely undermined that calculation after Mr Rubio came fifth and Mr Trump won so many demographic groups that the Republican party can no longer view him as an outsider who appeals only to blue-collar males with relatively little education. Mr Sanders’ big victory over Hillary Clinton underscored the extent to which the 2016 race for the White House has made a mockery of conventional wisdom.
Vin Weber, a former Minnesota congressman who is supporting Mr Bush, said Mr Trump was “significantly strengthened” by New Hampshire, but that the race would “go on for a while”. He said the Republican contest would now see Mr Cruz and Mr Trump compete in one lane, while Mr Bush and Mr Kasich battled for the establishment mantle.
Mr Rubio has also vowed to fight on, saying that his poor debate performance “will never happen again.”
Mr Cruz’s third place result was better than some polls anticipated. But the night belonged to Mr Trump, who put his finger on the 2016 race when he told fans this weekend: “I have been a politician for seven months. Can you believe it?”
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